Technology Growth and Commercialization


The other day Steve Fulling asked me "what ever happened to P2P?" My response was "its still there and interesting."  His view was that it was gone because he didn't see company announcements, new products, etc.  After some thought we came to the conclusion that in tough economic times, technology doesn't slow down as much as its commercialization.  My view is that P2P, Web Services, etc. are growing and thriving.  At some point someone is going to add some capital and, like an algae bloom, we're going to see another season of dramatic commercialization of information technologies.  

I think this is especially true for software.  Think of all the programmers out there experimenting with P2P, 802.11X, SOAP, WSIL, etc.  None of this costs very much and folks can develop all sorts of interesting ideas without much capital investment.  One day some capital or an intersecting idea comes along and "wham!" a company is born.