Tim O'Reilly, in his annual O'Reilly Radar talk, made some interesting observations about the current state of application development:

• Internet, not the PC is the platform
• Apps are built on top of open source, but not themselves open source
• Doc Searl's "DIY-IT" is a key to success
• Sevices, not packaed applications
• Source code + comilation != application
• Exploring how to becone platform players via Web services APIs

The take-aways:

• FOSS doesn't guarantee freedom when applications depend on network effects and data lock-in more than on software secrets.
• Invite your used to build your services and your data, not just your code.
• if you're committed to openness, set bold standards for user control of data.
• Architect for participation via a web of smaall advantages.